2
the events foreshadowed by Sir R. Macleay materialise, a good opportunity to invite and obtain the co-operation of other Powers in the institution of a blockade would be presented, with the added advantage that the coercion of Canton would then be carried out on behalf of and in the interests of the Peking Government.
(Signed)
E. T. HUMPHREYS,
Colonel, D/D., M.O. & 1.
C. L. N. NEWALL,
Air Commodore, Director of Operations and Intelligence, Air Ministry.
W. A. EGERTON,
Captain, R.N., Director of
Plans, Admiralty.”
5. It will be seen that in regard to Canton the only practicable measure of coercion which can be applied is the institution of a blockade of the approaches to that port. The extent to which such a blockade is likely to prove really effective is a matter which appears to require further investigation, and we recommend that an opinion as to its value should be sought from the Advisory Committee on Trading and Blockade.
6. If from the enquiries of the Advisory Committee on Trading and Blockade it is established that the application of economic pressure on Canton is likely to prove an effective measure of coercion, and a situation arises in which the Cabinet decides that such a blockade should be instituted, we recommend that the Foreign Office should consider the advisability of issuing a warning to the Cantonese Authorities to the effect that a stringent blockade will be enforced unless normal relations are resumed and Treaty obligations are observed by a certain date. It will of course be for the Foreign Office to decide the psychological moment at which such a warning, if desirable, should be issued, but it is essential that the Commander-in- Chief on the China Station should be advised at an early date of the intention to make a pronouncement of this nature, so that he may be ready to put the requisite measures into force immediately should the necessity arise.
7. Lastly, in the event of the Authorities at Canton proving obdurate and refusing to submit to such coercive treatment as can be imposed by means of blockade, we think it right to emphasise once again the following passage from our earlier Report:
"Offensive action in China can only be international, and even on that basis it would probably be unprofitable, except possibly for Japan, who must be the predominant partner."
2, Whitehall Gardens, S.W. 1,
March 12, 1926.
(Signed)
BEATTY.
GEO. F. MILNE.
H. TRENCHARD.
3
APPENDIX 1.
CANTON SHIPPING.
Vessels Entered and Cleared at the Maritime Customs under General Regulations
Flag.
during 1924
Ocea Steamers.
River Steamers.
Sailing Vessels (Foreign Type),
Launches.
Total.
No.
America
8
British..
998
Tons.
3,196 1,312,107 8,450
No.
66
Tons.
8,844 4,062,084
No. Tons. No. Tone. No.
Tona.
74 34,454 178 8,761 326 55,255 106 13,798 607 26,317 5,161 5,414,256
Chilian
180
100,698
180 100,698
Danish..
2
3,970
2
66
4
4,036
Dutch..
20
14,296
20
14,296
French..
69
49,808
6
94
75
49,902
22
308
22
308
--
Italian..
1
284
Japanese
574
708,675
22 6
4,774
20
220
43
5,228
2,544
10
210
590
711,429
Norwegian
159
177,289
159
LI
177,289
Portuguese
69
32,569 958 418,191
54
848 1,055
451,602
5
50
5
30
·
82
45,896
42
45,396
30 14,820
30
14,820
215 280,550
8
German
Spanish Swedish
Non-Treaty Powers Chinese
1,752 8 786 82 2,987 313 285,975
2,351 2,744,102 4,510 4,498,139 188 48,988 966 89,811 8,015 7,331,040
APPENDIX II.
Copy of a Telegram from Sir R. Macleay, Peking, to the Foreign Office, dated March 1, 1928. (No. 83.)
FOLLOWING is continuation of my immediately preceding telegram :-
V
Should struggle now proceeding between Wu Pei-fu and his adherents against Kuo Min-chun and present Radical Government in Peking, and in victory for former and formation of more Conservative coalition Government, it is more than probable that Canton Government will at once proclaim their complete independence and launch an attack on coalition from the south. In such an event a formal protest by us to Central Government against continued boycott of Hong Kong and breach of treaties by Cantonese would probably elicit a repudiation of their action towards Great Britain which should strengthen the hands of His Majesty's Government in any discussion in regard to situation in the south, on which they may think fit to embark with other Powers." Addressed to Foreign Office, No. 83, repeated to Hong Kong,
360
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